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Markets:
- Markets closed for Good Friday
- FX primarily unchanged
A vacation all through international markets normally makes for a quiet information day however that wasn’t the case at this time with US PCE, Powell and another odds-and-ends.
The PCE report had one thing for everybody however there was some US greenback promoting within the aftermath. I believe a few of that was a sigh of reduction that it wasn’t sizzling and a few was as a result of m/m core unrounded at +0.261% in comparison with +0.3% anticipated. Now a few of that may have been due to an upward revision to January to +0.5% from +0.4% however the market will take the assistance the place it might probably get it.
Powell himself struck me as incrementally extra hawkish, although he did say that at this time’s PCE report was “just about in keeping with our expectations” and “good to see”. On the identical time, he mentioned the Fed needs to see extra inflation stories like final yr, which signifies it isn’t sufficient.
What struck me was that he did not spotlight the chance to chop charges this yr, although he wasn’t actually requested about it. In the long term, he mentioned that if inflation stays sticky for longer, they are going to maintain for longer (importantly, he did not say they’d hike).
In any case, the early US greenback promoting was slowly pale and we’re winding down the day precisely the place it started. Monday can also be a vacation in elements of the world (Europe particularly) so we’d not be again to full throttle in markets. Watch Asia although with the BOJ’s Tankan and China’s manufacturing PMI.
Have a cheerful Easter.
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