Is The Atlanta Housing Market Going To Crash?

Like a number of cities within the Southern United States, Atlanta has skilled a surge in recognition as a place of job and residence. From a inhabitants of roughly 394,017 in 1990, Atlanta’s inhabitants grew by greater than 1 / 4 (26.7%), reaching 499,127 individuals by 2022.

When housing markets throughout America acquired turbocharged in 2021 and 2022, Atlanta was one amongst many to really feel the pandemic-induced squeeze on residence costs and obtainable houses on the market. However after the Fed’s collection of fee hikes from 2022 to 2023, many housing markets have been introduced again all the way down to earth. The query is how onerous the autumn again to earth is.

Learn on to seek out out key developments growing within the Atlanta housing market in 2023 and the way doubtless a housing market crash might be.

Atlanta Housing Market 2023: Overview

By our evaluation of housing knowledge sourced from Redfin
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, the Atlanta metro space housing market is maybe not as sizzling because it was in 2021 and 2022, however costs are nonetheless rising. The median sale value for a house within the Atlanta metro space reached a peak of $400,000 in Could and June 2022. Since these peaks, residence costs haven’t come down that a lot. For the Atlanta metro space general, the median sale value declined by 2.5%, from Could 2022’s $400,000 all the way down to $390,000 in Could 2023; whereas the median sale value year-over-year from June 2022 to June 2023 barely modified, slipping from $400,000 to $399,900.

Within the metropolis of Atlanta correct, residence costs peaked in Could 2022, when the Atlanta median sale value reached an all-time excessive of $457,856. Since then, costs have fluctuated however haven’t witnessed a sustained decline. From a median sale value of $457,856 in Could 2022, it decreased by a mere 1.7%, to $449,990 in Could 2023. And from June 2022 to June 2023, Atlanta’s median sale value truly elevated, by 5.5%, from $415,000 to $438,000. The most recent month we’ve got knowledge for is August 2023 and, right here once more, Atlanta residence costs rose year-over-year, by 4.1%: From a median sale value of $400,000 in August 2022 to $416,500 in August 2023.

Town of Mableton, which is slightly underneath 15 miles west-northwest of Atlanta, skilled the most important year-over-year development in residence costs. From a median sale value of $339,950 in August 2022, costs rose by nearly a fifth (19.9%), reaching a median sale value of $407,500 in August 2023. Town of Tucker is an analogous distance from Atlanta, however to the northeast. House costs in Tucker rose by nearly the identical quantity as in Mableton — 19.8% year-over-year, from a median sale value of $388,500 in August 2022 to $465,525 in August 2023. Certainly, solely 4 cities within the Atlanta metro space — South Fulton, Stonecrest, Douglasville, and Dunwoody (one of many richest cities in Georgia), noticed costs decline from August 2022 to August 2023.

Stock within the Atlanta Housing Market Continues to Drop

Whereas many different main housing markets, just like the Las Vegas housing market, have watched their housing stock begin to construct up, in Atlanta this isn’t the case. Each housing market we analyzed within the better Atlanta space witnessed declines in obtainable stock year-over-year. For the Atlanta metro space general, obtainable stock dropped by 33.7%, from 26,403 houses on the market in August 2022, all the way down to 17,514 houses in August 2023. In Atlanta correct, the decline was much less steep however nonetheless a big drop of twenty-two.8%, from 3,257 obtainable houses in August 2022, all the way down to 2,513 obtainable houses in August 2023.

Three cities within the better Atlanta housing market noticed their housing stock reduce in half: Woodstock, the place obtainable stock fell by 50.9%; Dunwoody, the place it fell by 57.5%, and Johns Creek, the place it fell by 57.9%. With stock tightening throughout the board, it’s not shocking that almost all of cities within the bigger Atlanta housing market noticed their costs proceed to rise from 2022 to 2023.

Homes for Sale within the Atlanta Housing Market Are Staying on the Market Longer than Earlier than

One of many extra helpful metrics for analyzing housing market exercise is the size of time a house on the market spends in the marketplace earlier than getting purchased up. Redfin refers to this measure as days on market, which represents the month-to-month median days on market a house on the market sits earlier than being taken off the market. Within the Atlanta metro space, the median variety of days on market of a house on the market rose from 21 days in August 2022 to 26 days in August 2023, equal to an annual enhance of roughly 23.8%. Nevertheless, within the metropolis of Atlanta correct, the year-over-year enhance within the median days on market was smaller — 16% — rising from 25 days on market in August 2022 to 29 days on market in August 2023.

Beneath is a desk detailing the developments in days on market within the 26 areas we analyzed within the better Atlanta housing market:

The Backside Line on an Atlanta Housing Market Crash

Primarily based on the info and our evaluation, it doesn’t seem to be the Atlanta housing market will crash. One of many greatest indicators of a coming housing crash is a big build-up in housing stock. That completely has not occurred within the Atlanta housing market. Whereas it’s true houses on the market are sitting in the marketplace longer than final 12 months, the median days on marketplace for most cities within the better Atlanta housing market have returned to extra regular ranges, reasonably than abnormally lengthy.

One other issue arguing in opposition to a crash is the pretty constant sales-to-list ratios within the core cities of the Atlanta metro space. When housing markets are sizzling, the sales-to-list ratio tends to rise above 100%, as houses get bought for greater than their authentic listed value. Whereas the Atlanta housing market undoubtedly acquired sizzling in 2021 and 2022, its sales-to-list ratio has been very regular. Take town of Atlanta for instance:

• Atlanta sales-to-list ratio August 2018: 98.3%
• Atlanta sales-to-list ratio August 2020: 98.1%
• Atlanta sales-to-list ratio August 2022: 98.8%
• Atlanta sales-to-list ratio August 2023: 99.3%

The Atlanta housing market, if something, appears to be moderating. However the truth that costs are nonetheless rising, and stock remains to be diminishing means the difficulty in Atlanta just isn’t a crash however continued tightening of the housing market.