RBNZ policy decision due today – surprise tightening to 5.75% is a risk (but a small one)

The Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand coverage announcement is due at 0100 GMT, 2100 US Jap time.

I posted a preview from ANZ earlier:

Certainly, a ‘hawkish maintain’ is extensively anticipated.

KiwiBank:

• We’re anticipating déjà vu, with no change in coverage nor tone from the August replace.
• The money charge is anticipated to be left untouched (5.50%) and the assertion will reaffirm the necessity to preserve charges restrictive.
• The RBNZ’s job: stabilise inflation.

Westpac:

• We expect the RBNZ will preserve the OCR at 5.50% at its October evaluate.
• We anticipate the RBNZ to retain the tightening bias expressed within the August Assertion and can goal to retain most flexibility to tighten (or not) in November ought to information warrant.
• A shock tightening to five.75% is a threat, however we expect not more than a 10-20% probability.

Additionally: